Against the odds, a new era beckons

Hong Kong is one of my favourite cities. There is just something so wonderfully unique about this tiny, bustling metropolis. The bright lights, constrasting against the backdrop of towering hills, draw me in from the moment that I land. The obsession with food, shopping, and "fro-yo" projects a very endearing air. I thrive in the buzz of the city. I love the place.

Beneath all of this, however, the real intrigue of Hong Kong lies in the island's powerful identity. Nothing embodies this more than the pictures we have seen these past few weeks. In Hong Kong, you have a city that is so incredibly proud of what it has become, and so incredibly proud of what it now is not. This is not a city in China. This is Hong Kong. Its own place destined to be separate from the constraints of Beijing. A democratic city where its residents are free to express their views. An important and influential financial district, which gains increasing international importance with each day.

The Umbrella Movement demonstrates so much of this sentiment. I am struck by awe that a group of students can come together and inspire so many of its 7 million population to line the streets. In the face of tear gas, these young adults did not lose control, but instead brought out yellow umbrellas to protect themselves. This has become a powerful symbol of what they stand for: democracy and freedom. Their enthusiasm and defiance touched all corners of the city, inspiring others to stand up and be heard. Nonetheless, I can't help but wonder; what is the end game here? What did these students actually set out to achieve?

I do not profess to be an expert in politics, let alone Chinese politics. Understanding China and its political chess game is a tall order. However, what has become clear to me is that China has immense pride in its ability to maintain control and order. These protests pose a problem. Hong Kong, with its financial and business epicentre, is an incredibly important city for Beijing, but the government cannot let the mainland be encouraged by these demonstrations. They are stuck between hurting the financial stability of Hong Kong and hurting the social stability of mainland China.

Aside from the protests spreading, the tail risk for China has always been that the island's businesses shut down, international corporations scale back operations amid political instability, and the international press draws more and more attention to the situation. Earlier this week, I had finished writing this piece and had spoken of how China, in the end, had played the game of chess well by scaling back its initial over-aggressive reaction. It had looked like the protests were losing momentum with people just wanting to get back to work. The international press had lost interest. It seemed as if Beijing could just wait out the students as their numbers on the streets dwindled. However, things really can change in a week. A situation that looked like it was drawing to a conclusion has been sparked back into life by the beating of an unarmed protestor by the Hong Kong police. It is hard to imagine that Beijing did not have some influence in the sudden shift in the handling of this situation. Has a restless China, so desperate for order to be resumed, tried to force an end to this 3 week long protest? In my mind, this is exactly what has happened, and they may end up viewing this as their biggest mistake.

What next from here? The students have won a momentous victory in achieving forthcoming discussions with the government. However, regardless of this, I would expect the elections to go ahead as planned. It is unlikely that Beijing would allow any other outcome. Have these protests been a failure then? Absolutely not. The world has had a frightening reminder of China's force to achieve its agenda. Whilst not as terrifying, the police reaction has reminded the world of Tiananmen Square. Twenty five years have passed since that fateful day, but it appears that no lessons have been learnt by one of the world's rising powerhouses. If Beijing continues to value control and order over all else, then it won't be long before the press is reporting a different issue with the same violent outcome in Hong Kong. Is it the responsibility of the developed world to intervene in the issue? Maybe not. However, I can't help but think that if Hong Kong was sitting on the world's largest oil reserves, then the answer would be different.

In the meantime, we await the outcome of the upcoming discussions. No matter the result, a whole generation in Hong Kong has been galvanised, inspired, and shown that even China can be forced into political discussions that they never envisaged. Whatever happens, I don't think that this will be the last time that we see this city standing up for the pressing issues. This could be a new era for Hong Kong. We will soon see if it is a successful one.